Crucial kickoff/session decisions for Week 15

Last week in this space we ended up doing pretty well because Sam Darnold, Rico Dowdle and Jordan Addison put up big numbers. Hopefully some of these guys helped you get into the fantasy playoffs. But now is the time to perfect those starts/sets because we’re in the playoffs and it’s win or go home. Or in the case of fantasy football, win or get out, I guess. So don’t log out just yet! Let’s go through some of my starts and stay in week 15.

If you want to follow my advice, it won’t be hard to transfer these thoughts to group decisions. To give me a base, I’ll use FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Rankings rankings as my guide.

Aaron Rodgers, Jets vs. Jaguars

Rodgers is a nut, but that doesn’t make for a great matchup and big receivers can’t help him get some fantasy points. Rodgers blamed his poor play on his injuries or at least told others to blame him now that he can no longer blame Robert Saleh, Mike Williams, etc. week, it turns out that maybe he feels better. We’ve also seen big games from both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, and if those three can get on the same page against the Jaguars’ horrendous pass defense, then it’s hard to see Rodgers not profit this week.

Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. Buccaneers

This pick has some caveats, but on the surface, this is a strong fit for Herbert. The Buccaneers were one of the best quarterback matchups this season as Baker Mayfield and company constantly moved the ball, putting pressure on the opposing offense to keep up. And the opposition can often put up fantasy points through the air because the Bucs pass defense has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Herbert is currently dealing with an ankle injury, which he says is not as serious as his previous ankle injury this year. His top receiver, Ladd McConkey, is dealing with a few injuries and missed last week’s game. There’s no doubt that Herbert needs McConkey there, and I wouldn’t start him if McConkey is out. So if Herbert and McConkey look ready to go, I like this matchup.

Anthony Richardson, Colts at Broncos

The Broncos defense has given up its sixth rushing yards to quarterbacks and just one touchdown this season. Richardson mostly showed his upside as he entered the end zone as a running back. Now they head into the mountain air to take on one of the best statistical defenses in the league as Denver ranks first in the EPA against the pass. I wouldn’t want to risk starting Richardson in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

Russell Wilson, Steelers at Eagles

Wilson has played well this season and has even been a fantasy asset at times. Unfortunately, this week will be a big test for Wilson and the Steelers offense. First, they will be without their No. 1 receiver George Pickens, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Last week without Pickens, Wilson managed to throw two touchdowns against the Browns, but only managed to put together 158 yards passing. The Eagles have given up the third fewest passing yards and fifth fewest passing touchdowns this year.

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. Cowboys

Jonathon Brooks unfortunately suffered another ACL injury last week, which should keep Hubbard as the tight end to finish the season. Both teams are bad against the run, but the Cowboys actually took the “draft” as the worst team against the run in the EPA, while the Panthers moved into second.

Hubbard had three straight games against tough defenses where he finished with less than four yards per carry, but still managed to finish as the RB12 and RB8 against the Chiefs and Eagles. It is a miracle in itself. The last game he had against a weak defense was when he went for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. He is one of my favorite plays this week in a game where the Panthers are actually the favorite!

Brian Robinson, captains at Saints

Robinson has a great matchup this week against the Saints. New Orleans allowed the second-most touchdowns and yards per carry to running backs on the season. Add in that the Saints offense will be led by either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler, and it’s hard to believe they’ll put up a ton of points. The Chiefs are 7-point favorites despite being on the road this week, meaning we should see plenty of Robinson.

Najee Harris, Steelers at Eagles

Harris was able to make a start last week against the Browns despite not seeing a target in the passing game. The Steelers led early in the second quarter, which helped Harris see 16 carries, including a one-yard rushing touchdown. In Philadelphia this week, I don’t expect the Steelers to be able to hold onto a lead in the second half. And when the team needed a receiver last week, it was Jaylen Warren through and through.

James Cook, Bills at Lions

The Lions defense doesn’t get the accolades that the offense does, but it has been great this season, especially against the run. They have given up the second-fewest fantasy points, fourth-fewest yards per carry and fewest receptions to running backs this year. This game has the biggest over/under of the week and it should be close. That means we should see a lot of fantasy points, but that doesn’t mean James Cook will get a lot. Last week, in a game where Josh Allen and company piled up 42 points, Cook had six carries for 20 yards and two receptions for nine more yards. I expect Allen to throw and run the ball a ton in this game because he is the offense. That could leave Cook out in the cold again.

DJ Moore, Bears at Vikings

The Bears’ pass defense gave up 320 passing yards and two touchdowns to Sam Darnold in Week 12. That lack of defense forced Caleb Williams to throw the ball a ton as they were down 24-10 in the fourth quarter . The Bears’ pass defense has faltered a bit of late, and another big Vikings advantage for a red-hot Darnold could be in the works. Moore finished with seven receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown in that game, and I expect a similar game this week as long as the Vikings offense can get going.

DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs at Browns

The Browns don’t give up many receptions to wide receivers, but when they do, they go for an average of over 16 yards! Next worst is the Rams at 14.8 yards per completion. That deep passing issue should bode well for Hopkins, who has led the team in deep targets since Week 9. Other than that, though, he’s also being targeted in the red zone, helping him to four touchdowns in the last his six games.

DeVonta Smith, Eagles vs. Steelers

I expect this game to be a low-scoring, run-the-ball-in-the-dirt type of matchup. Both teams have strong pass and run defenses, but the Eagles have a superior rushing offense with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. The Steelers won’t have George Pickens running the field, which can lead to checks and rush attempts. Both AJ Brown and Smith will have tough matchups, but Brown may have some squeaky-clean action due to his misconduct complaint last week. Smith, on the other hand, remains the No. 1 receiver. 2, and his target numbers haven’t been good, especially when the team goes all-in on the run.

Michael Pittman Jr., Colts at Broncos

Josh Downs looks set to return this week, but even if he doesn’t, this is a game to bench. Patrick Surtain helped shut down No. 1 receivers this year and helped the Broncos to the No. 1 against the transition to the EPA. Throw in the fact that Pittman hasn’t been his usual self since he’s been dealing with a back injury, and I’m wary.

Jordan Akins, Browns vs. Chiefs

The Browns will most likely be without David Njoku this week, which hurts, but Jordan Akins is a capable backup in a good spot. The Chiefs should get an edge in this one, and they’re more susceptible to the pass than the run anyway. I expect to see Jameis Winston throw the ball a ton again and Akins could easily put up good numbers as Kansas City has been poor against tight ends. On the season, the Chiefs have given up the most receiving yards and the most receptions at the position.

Stone Smartt, Chargers vs. Buccaneers

Smartt probably isn’t as good as Akins, but he should get a good opportunity this week if you’re really hurt at the position. Will Dissly looks set to miss this week after picking up a shoulder injury just before the break last week against the Chiefs. Smartt then came in and caught three passes for 54 yards in the second half. Yes, the Chiefs are bad against tight ends, but so are the Buccaneers. They have given up the sixth-most receptions, second-most yards and eighth-most touchdowns at the position.

Dalton Kincaid, Bills at Lions

Kincaid should be back this week to face the Lions, but even with their big over/under, Kincaid has a tough matchup. On the season, the Lions have allowed 47 receptions for 418 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games. That’s in addition to the fewest fantasy points allowed, while Kincaid, before his knee injury, had no more than 57 receiving yards on the season and has just two touchdowns.

Sam LaPorta, Lions vs. Bills

The Bills continue to be a tough matchup for tight ends this season. They allowed the fewest receiving yards per reception, the fourth fewest receiving yards and the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends on the year. LaPorta has worked a lot harder since an extremely slow start, so the volume could help him if the game turns into a shootout, but the matchup will be one the Lions offense will want to minimize this week.